Original: Shotguns damage : change Fall 2015 Patch, posted July 14th, 2015
There is a previous thread analyzing the damage caused by shotguns: Shotgun Damage -outdated- (BF4)
The general ideas and conclusions remain qualitatively valid.
The change in damage model is:
This means that quantitative changes are limited to the range 24-50 m.
The change in the mean damage (number of pellets 12 and 21) are:
As you can see changes are outside the area OHK.
The change in the probability of lethal damage (DMG>100) with one shot, is:
No changes for small number of pellets and a reduction of probability (very small, when previously was 4%, now is 0% - 32 m.) for 21 pellets.
The conclusion is that the shotguns are still effective in its natural range of use (0-25 m), 66% of the engagements according Miffyli kill distance data.
Outside this range, and for shotguns with high number of pellets (ie. 21) the effect (on average) is it will take one shot more to kill, as you can see here:
This is the change on average, but previously you needed (at 35 m) betwen 1 and 5 shots (2 on average), and now you need betwen 2 and 6 shots (3 on average) (probability 95%, +/- 2* standard dev.). That means that now you still can kill with 2 shots, but with a lower probability.
For shotguns with low number of pellets (ie 12) yo nedded too many shots to kill outside of the optimal range (surely you lost the target or the target killed you), and now you need too many+1, that is, too many shots too.
With this change the subjective perception “someone has killed me with one shot at 50 meters” (numerically impossible) will be less frequent. Although if he forgot that was running with 10 of life may continue believing.
Conclusions on the effect of chokes, darts, defensive perk etc., understood as a horizontal displacement of the curves in distance or the reduced area of the body where the full effect occurs remain valid (more or less).